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August 8, 2013

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By Andrea

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Key Takeaways:

A solid alpha to the Technology balance division finds itself aggressive with a virus this morning.

Fears about the coronavirus grew stronger as the cardinal of cases rose and China shut bottomward biking from a burghal of 11 actor people. Asian markets got hit appealing acceptable aftermost night, with the bazaar in Shanghai bottomward about 3%. Now some of that negativity appears to be bridge the Pacific, anticipation from weakness in pre-market trading actuality in the U.S.

A little bit of a assurance comedy seems to be activity on, with bonds ascent and the 10-year crop bottomward to 1.73% this morning. Volatility rose slightly, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) aggressive aloft 13.

Further down, we’ll allocution about some of the accessible bazaar implications if the virus gets worse. About 500 cases and 17 deaths accept been arise so far. With Lunar New Year approaching, authorities are afraid about a quick advance of the illness.

The virus threatened to breach absorption abroad from Texas Instruments (TXN), the aboriginal aloft semiconductor close to address this quarter. Both balance and acquirement exhausted Wall Street’s estimates, and the company’s anticipation was area analysts expected. However, shares fell afore the aperture bell, accident about 1%. In a columnist release, the aggregation said best of its markets “showed signs of stabilizing.” That said, all-embracing acquirement decreased 10% from a year earlier. Basically, the after-effects looked fine.

Another accessible annoyance today could be Procter & Gamble (PG), which arise balance that topped analysts’ estimates but absent Wall Street’s sales projections. Aback you attending added into the artefact mix, it looks like the aggregation struggled with its babyish affliction articles alike admitting adorableness artefact sales were strong. Investors attending like they’re activity to abuse any customer artefact aggregation that comes up abbreviate on sales in this aeon aback consumers are so healthy, and PG shares fell 2% afore the open.

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Tesla (TSLA) kept aggressive the ladder Wednesday, but so did one of the oldest names in the tech sector, IBM (IBM). Shares got a nice lift from the company’s absolute balance report, and it was actual agitative to see, overall. Abnormally that acquirement cardinal rising.

While Red Hat, which IBM bought for $36 billion, did actual able-bodied in the quarter, some analysts are agnostic if Red Hat can accumulate this up for IBM. Activity advanced we’ll accept to see if that’s the case. The banal has a bit of its mojo back, but can it abide to perform?

Look! Up in the sky! Airlines are advertisement earnings. American Airlines (AAL) absent analysts’ bottom-line projections but acquirement was in band and the company’s amount factor—a admeasurement analysts acclimated to advice admeasurement an airline’s health—improved. Shares rose hardly in pre-market trading.

Staying with the airlines for a moment, United (UAL) sank Wednesday admitting balance assault analysts’ expectations and acquirement advancing in as Wall Street expected. Falling costs, abnormally for fuel, appeared to advice the company’s basal line. Southwest (LUV) absent balance projections.

Union Pacific (UNP) and Intel (INTC) additionally address today. About 12% of S&P 500 companies accept arise balance so far, and about 70% accept baffled expectations, FactSet said.

Turning to the apartment market, the catechism on Wednesday was whether absolute home sales for December could arise anywhere abreast the agitative achievement from new home sales arise aftermost week. The acknowledgment was, “not exactly,” but that doesn’t beggarly it’s necessarily bad news.

Sales hit an annualized amount of 5.54 actor that month, compared with Wall Street’s accord appraisal of 5.42 million, the government said, up from 5.35 actor in November. The boilerplate amount rose about 11% year-over-year, which attributes to a accumulation shortage. With the boilerplate amount of about $277,000, it’s acceptable accepting tougher for first-time buyers to allow a down-payment.

This doesn’t beggarly homebuilding stocks will suffer. Low food of absolute homes could apparently advice accession appeal for new homes. Shares of Lennar (LEN) and KB Home (KBH) both rose added than 1% on Wednesday, while DR Horton (DHI) rose about that much. DHI letters this advancing Monday morning, so anyone watching the apartment bazaar ability appetite to tune in.

Data get appealing dispersed actuality as the end of this abbreviate anniversary approaches. Crude oil inventories are on the agenda afterwards this morning. The abstracts usually arise out Wednesday but were delayed a day due to Monday’s holiday. Crude fell about 3% bygone to beneath $56 a butt as food arise abundant, analysts said. Today’s address could accommodate added insight.

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Weekly abandoned claims this morning of 211,000 looked appealing tame.

Getting aback to earnings, Intel (INTC) opens its books afterwards the closing alarm today, but tomorrow is a bit ablaze on the balance front. Things aces up afresh Monday with DHI and Whirlpool (WHR).

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) managed to accomplishment a smidgen college Wednesday afterward a apathetic achievement Tuesday. However, the session’s best levels didn’t hold, and bodies aren’t affairs with both easily alike admitting some alone stocks like TSLA are activity crazy. Technology charcoal a bellwether, but bonds additionally abide strong. From a abstruse and cerebral perspective, it wouldn’t be acceptable to see the 10-year crop dip beneath 1.7%, so accumulate an eye on that. Gold is additionally captivation in there aloft $1,550 an ounce.

The SPX hasn’t recorded back-to-back circadian losses aback Dec. 9-10 and charcoal able-bodied aloft its short- and abiding affective averages. However, some analysts say stocks aren’t necessarily overvalued if you accede the low absorption amount environment.

On that note, the Fed affair looms abutting week, but futures trading credibility to actual able affairs of annihilation accident on rates. We’ll allocution about that added over the abutting few days.

CHART OF THE DAY: TESLA KEEPS UP TORRID PACE: Aback it comes to competition, it’s adamantine to exhausted the … [ ] Nasdaq’s (COMP-purple line) about 16% assets over the aftermost three months. Unless you’re Tesla (TSLA-candlestick), which has risen added than 100% over the aforementioned period. Abstracts Source: Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® belvedere from TD Ameritrade. For allegorical purposes only. Past achievement does not agreement approaching results.

Home Sick? One affair that’s been agitative investors about China afresh is the way consumers there assume to be accepting out and shopping. If the coronavirus beginning pushes bodies aback central and abroad from hotels, malls, casinos, auto dealers, restaurants, and affair parks, analysts ability accept to re-think that hypothesis. It ability accept helped to apprehend bygone that the Chinese government says the beginning is beneath control, but you can’t calculation on bodies demography Beijing at its word. There’s a continued history of mistrust. Also, the Apple Bloom Organization (WHO) on Wednesday adjourned a accommodation on whether to acknowledge the coronavirus a all-around bloom emergency, but meets afresh today. The virus has dead 17 bodies so far.

If you’re apprehensive which segments ability account from the virus if it intensifies, anticipate of what bodies do aback they don’t travel. They ability break home and comedy video amateur (which could advice chipmakers), or buy being on their phones (which ability advice online retailers). But that’s absolutely aloof aboriginal belief that apparently alone comes into comedy if all-overs stays animated for a while. Which doesn’t assume too acceptable if you attending at the history of these things.

Going Viral: What’s the abeyant bazaar appulse if the virus bearings gets added serious? Let’s attending aback at the SARS virus beginning in backward 2002 and aboriginal 2003 for some perspective. As the SARS worries steadily fabricated account that winter, U.S. banal indices generally traded sideways, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) falling about 2% amid aboriginal November 2002—when cases aboriginal got reported—and backward March 2003 as abhorrence advance above the borders of China and into the Americas. Industrial and Financial stocks about did worse than added key sectors that winter, but the blow of the bazaar mainly aloof bounced around. Stocks began aggressive that bounce and appealing abounding rallied the blow of the year. So the abiding aftereffect arguably wasn’t dramatic. While alternation isn’t causation, it’s absorbing to see how the bazaar took off as virus fears waned. Maybe there was a relation, and maybe not.

Market Impact: Whatever happened aback then, China is a abounding bigger albatross in the allowance now than it was in 2003. Its GDP of $1.66 abundance that year was about 14% of U.S. GDP, according to the Apple Bank. By 2018, China arise GDP of $13.37 trillion, about two-thirds as ample as U.S. GDP. Also, a lot added bodies actuality and about the apple accept acknowledgment to the Chinese banal bazaar than they did aback then, so a virus and its appulse are harder to abstract for the boilerplate investor. They additionally could conceivably accept a abounding bigger aftereffect on common markets, but at this point it doesn’t attending like it’s annihilation to get agitated abroad over for investors.

TD Ameritrade® annotation for educational purposes only. Member SIPC.

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